* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 38 43 50 51 47 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 38 43 50 51 47 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 38 39 39 37 33 26 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 32 23 25 19 8 6 26 38 32 23 22 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -11 -11 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 215 211 212 251 248 326 322 37 29 25 11 8 318 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.0 24.7 24.3 22.6 19.2 14.6 11.7 13.9 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 127 124 112 110 93 64 62 61 65 66 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -56.9 -56.7 -55.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 44 44 47 52 47 44 48 42 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 50 42 36 35 11 -13 -66 -112 -120 -159 -157 -89 200 MB DIV 26 44 53 20 24 32 -7 -41 -61 -6 -48 -8 -8 700-850 TADV 9 17 20 10 8 8 -2 -7 -11 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1095 1243 1347 1421 1478 1679 2078 2439 1980 1621 1485 1707 2148 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.6 27.6 30.1 32.8 35.4 37.8 40.4 42.4 42.4 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 170.1 171.5 172.4 172.9 173.1 174.0 177.0 181.8 186.4 188.8 188.0 183.7 177.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 10 11 16 21 24 19 13 11 20 25 HEAT CONTENT 4 9 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 837 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -13. -25. -32. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 1. -5. -11. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 8. 15. 16. 12. 0. -16. -31. -41. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.8 170.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 269.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##