* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 58 62 67 68 67 62 58 51 47 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 58 62 67 68 67 62 58 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 55 60 63 65 65 63 58 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 15 14 12 4 6 4 5 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 28 28 38 39 29 49 27 59 53 63 76 70 92 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.8 27.9 26.9 25.6 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 155 155 157 157 151 142 131 118 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 75 76 75 73 72 68 67 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 -3 -15 -7 12 14 6 -9 -14 2 1 6 200 MB DIV 59 36 39 20 5 27 5 20 -3 -1 -6 -5 -9 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -7 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 396 352 331 334 321 371 426 371 343 359 341 383 495 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 25 26 29 15 12 12 6 3 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 27. 28. 27. 22. 18. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 103.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 31.5% 21.7% 14.5% 12.0% 15.9% 16.5% Logistic: 17.8% 32.7% 18.8% 9.9% 5.5% 14.1% 16.2% Bayesian: 3.1% 62.8% 44.3% 21.0% 9.2% 38.8% 27.7% Consensus: 11.8% 42.3% 28.3% 15.2% 8.9% 23.0% 20.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##