* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082016 07/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 59 65 66 64 63 59 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 59 65 66 64 63 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 51 55 57 56 55 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 3 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -8 -7 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 78 84 90 95 92 111 104 113 144 231 263 261 295 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 148 144 143 136 129 131 136 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 73 69 67 63 62 59 58 57 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 7 4 17 29 35 50 43 55 45 48 41 200 MB DIV 58 62 56 52 53 51 30 28 41 31 0 4 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1337 1366 1386 1373 1383 1461 1573 1740 1914 2091 2280 2035 1869 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.5 119.9 122.5 125.3 128.1 130.9 133.5 135.9 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 20 24 23 23 11 8 3 10 14 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 35. 36. 34. 33. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 113.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT 07/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.43 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.6% 14.8% 10.3% 0.0% 12.6% 12.7% Logistic: 2.4% 6.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.5% 4.0% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 3.1% Consensus: 3.0% 12.5% 7.4% 4.0% 0.2% 5.7% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT 07/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##