* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 53 49 47 45 40 35 28 23 21 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 53 49 47 45 40 35 28 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 52 51 47 44 42 40 37 34 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 10 8 8 17 23 31 29 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 2 3 6 2 3 0 -3 -3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 256 254 259 268 278 246 243 233 232 242 233 226 216 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 127 128 128 127 127 125 124 121 117 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 35 33 33 36 39 40 41 43 43 44 43 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 16 15 14 13 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 27 27 30 13 15 12 14 19 7 -28 -52 200 MB DIV -19 -28 -10 -35 -26 0 1 28 9 -10 4 -9 10 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 3 4 3 2 8 11 7 11 9 12 LAND (KM) 831 702 573 480 388 227 62 21 33 116 166 311 517 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.1 22.2 23.5 25.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.9 148.2 149.4 150.3 151.2 152.7 154.2 155.2 155.9 157.0 158.5 159.8 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 5 8 8 7 8 3 6 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -27. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 146.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 465.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##