* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 57 66 72 74 74 70 67 63 59 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 57 66 72 74 74 70 67 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 56 62 67 67 66 62 57 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 7 7 6 8 6 5 8 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 3 3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 38 40 2 6 357 7 39 33 39 66 72 76 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.5 25.4 24.5 23.7 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 156 157 157 148 136 127 115 105 97 91 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 8 8 6 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 75 77 73 73 71 71 68 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 14 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -10 -15 -4 6 2 1 -14 -18 -5 6 7 13 200 MB DIV 42 58 47 47 45 35 35 14 2 8 22 15 20 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 332 326 315 326 358 426 356 319 326 307 293 309 362 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.3 108.1 109.5 110.9 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.0 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 29 25 15 12 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 26. 32. 34. 34. 30. 27. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 104.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 31.0% 22.1% 15.0% 13.0% 17.2% 16.9% Logistic: 16.7% 51.1% 40.9% 23.2% 15.9% 43.2% 26.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 37.0% 22.6% 8.9% 3.7% 19.0% 5.3% Consensus: 10.6% 39.7% 28.5% 15.7% 10.9% 26.5% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##