* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 48 56 63 71 71 69 67 64 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 48 56 63 71 71 69 67 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 57 63 67 66 62 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 12 9 7 5 4 2 4 7 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -8 -7 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 75 80 89 97 93 104 89 109 142 119 142 116 103 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.4 25.6 24.8 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 148 146 144 142 136 127 119 110 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 67 66 63 61 59 58 56 53 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 13 14 16 16 15 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 14 25 30 29 38 33 34 27 40 37 43 200 MB DIV 59 43 49 62 74 39 21 38 50 17 1 0 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -7 -9 -3 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1359 1366 1369 1395 1432 1540 1610 1668 1710 1751 1790 1838 1872 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.9 18.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.7 118.8 121.1 122.9 124.4 125.7 127.2 128.8 129.8 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 10 9 8 8 9 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 25 22 21 18 16 15 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 18. 26. 33. 41. 41. 39. 37. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 114.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 22.1% 15.6% 10.7% 0.0% 13.4% 13.7% Logistic: 3.3% 18.9% 7.7% 3.8% 1.9% 8.5% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 20.3% 7.9% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% Consensus: 3.5% 20.4% 10.4% 5.5% 0.9% 7.6% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##