* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 49 46 45 38 33 28 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 49 46 45 38 34 29 23 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 47 43 40 37 35 31 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 9 6 8 11 24 30 28 24 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 4 5 3 5 4 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 232 243 259 271 266 265 235 240 233 242 228 223 221 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 127 127 128 127 126 124 123 119 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 34 34 35 38 37 39 39 42 41 41 41 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 15 15 15 13 11 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 25 25 19 12 14 11 25 18 -9 -38 -60 200 MB DIV -18 -8 -28 -21 -19 -5 22 10 -14 -10 -16 -1 2 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 10 9 8 9 10 10 LAND (KM) 759 651 544 443 342 157 28 9 91 133 222 428 693 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.7 21.8 22.9 24.2 25.9 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.7 149.7 150.7 151.6 153.3 154.8 156.0 157.0 158.1 159.3 160.8 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 5 5 5 7 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -17. -22. -27. -33. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.8 147.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 469.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##