* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 68 74 78 78 72 69 64 59 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 68 74 78 78 72 69 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 58 63 67 68 67 62 56 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 7 9 6 9 5 9 9 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 3 3 0 -1 -2 1 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 44 39 4 18 20 3 16 15 12 45 29 54 47 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.3 27.5 26.4 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 157 158 155 146 138 126 117 107 99 93 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 76 75 74 73 71 72 68 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -3 5 4 4 -14 -26 -26 -10 -9 3 -24 200 MB DIV 51 45 34 38 39 36 31 16 24 12 8 9 11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -6 -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 334 324 349 383 417 424 386 378 387 372 404 472 510 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.8 107.7 108.4 109.0 110.4 111.7 112.7 113.6 114.6 115.7 116.7 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 21 15 13 14 10 5 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 33. 33. 27. 24. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 105.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 30.5% 22.2% 15.3% 12.9% 17.5% 17.0% Logistic: 3.8% 22.7% 11.9% 7.6% 4.0% 11.7% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 24.5% 11.0% 3.3% 1.5% 3.1% 1.5% Consensus: 5.5% 25.9% 15.0% 8.7% 6.1% 10.7% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##