* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 58 64 68 66 64 62 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 58 64 68 66 64 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 52 56 57 57 55 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 10 7 3 1 4 9 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 1 -4 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 73 76 79 86 90 120 106 43 112 99 97 97 93 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.2 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 145 144 140 135 124 118 114 110 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 71 66 65 63 60 58 54 56 54 54 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 14 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 22 26 26 26 32 13 23 7 20 21 36 200 MB DIV 41 44 56 65 61 45 22 26 14 4 5 14 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -7 -8 -6 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1390 1393 1405 1442 1488 1563 1624 1669 1714 1744 1780 1805 1802 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.4 118.5 119.6 121.6 123.2 124.6 125.9 127.1 128.1 128.8 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 24 24 24 19 17 12 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 28. 34. 38. 36. 34. 32. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 115.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 20.7% 14.3% 9.1% 0.0% 12.6% 13.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 2.1% 10.9% 6.1% 3.5% 0.2% 5.1% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##