* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 40 38 33 27 22 18 16 16 17 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 40 38 33 29 24 20 18 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 42 40 37 34 32 29 27 25 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 7 8 9 20 26 32 25 17 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 5 6 3 3 2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 261 284 280 268 246 242 236 246 243 241 254 245 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 129 128 128 128 126 124 120 118 111 103 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 33 35 38 38 38 39 40 43 42 42 43 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 15 15 14 13 10 9 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 22 19 13 17 9 15 18 4 -22 -59 -80 200 MB DIV -11 -26 -24 -24 -5 2 16 1 -26 -21 -13 0 11 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 2 2 7 9 7 10 6 14 8 LAND (KM) 648 550 452 344 237 63 26 49 91 166 302 523 787 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.8 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.6 152.6 154.2 155.5 156.9 158.2 159.3 160.0 160.7 161.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 6 6 7 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 148.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 421.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##