* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 41 38 34 31 26 23 22 22 20 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 41 34 34 30 26 23 22 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 43 41 35 36 35 33 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 9 8 13 26 28 28 18 7 1 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 5 5 5 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 266 289 290 272 278 240 247 242 252 237 282 315 222 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 129 129 129 127 125 121 117 112 101 89 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 37 37 40 42 41 40 42 39 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 20 10 4 10 6 25 18 -4 -31 -72 -41 200 MB DIV -25 -29 -29 -15 0 6 11 -2 -10 -31 -23 -2 -7 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 0 0 1 5 4 6 6 6 4 0 LAND (KM) 465 355 247 156 68 -10 23 59 155 362 622 891 1166 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.1 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.6 25.3 27.5 29.9 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.5 152.6 153.5 154.3 155.8 156.9 158.2 159.5 160.7 161.6 162.1 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 8 11 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -12. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -27. -28. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.5 150.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 431.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##