* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 56 60 64 64 63 58 54 50 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 56 60 64 64 63 58 54 50 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 50 52 52 52 50 46 41 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 12 7 10 10 13 11 16 11 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 1 1 2 0 6 3 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 2 20 36 45 29 33 36 43 55 68 69 89 107 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 155 148 141 135 129 123 118 109 96 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 75 74 72 75 71 73 67 64 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 15 17 16 17 17 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 4 -9 -6 -30 -30 -49 -42 -41 -28 -35 -39 200 MB DIV 27 27 36 47 32 29 4 -13 20 -12 3 -3 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -6 -5 -7 -4 -4 -3 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 351 409 467 495 478 480 501 527 543 565 611 668 709 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.7 109.5 110.3 111.0 112.4 113.3 114.2 115.2 116.1 117.0 118.1 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 13 13 15 13 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 19. 18. 13. 9. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 107.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.69 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 29.2% 20.4% 13.4% 11.7% 16.0% 14.8% Logistic: 3.1% 18.3% 11.9% 6.9% 3.9% 8.7% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 4.7% 17.7% 11.3% 7.0% 5.3% 8.4% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##