* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 69 73 79 82 81 77 73 67 59 53 V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 69 73 79 82 81 77 73 67 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 59 67 73 79 86 89 86 79 71 64 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 12 10 4 5 5 9 10 14 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -1 -1 2 0 -1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 70 74 82 112 122 82 90 94 83 103 79 91 91 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 145 144 140 134 123 116 112 110 107 101 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 60 59 56 56 55 55 55 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 16 17 16 17 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 29 26 32 39 20 24 16 22 17 41 49 200 MB DIV 61 63 43 46 39 22 11 18 7 8 6 8 8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -8 -10 -5 -3 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1417 1455 1501 1541 1576 1624 1685 1745 1742 1764 1789 1810 1850 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.5 17.7 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.0 120.0 120.9 121.8 123.2 124.8 126.3 127.3 128.1 128.6 129.3 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 7 6 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 23 18 17 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 23. 29. 32. 31. 27. 23. 17. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.6 117.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 6.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 38.8% 27.7% 20.2% 17.9% 43.0% 25.5% Logistic: 10.1% 24.7% 12.6% 9.0% 4.9% 12.0% 10.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 36.1% 26.5% 14.9% 7.2% 8.6% 0.5% Consensus: 11.5% 33.2% 22.2% 14.7% 10.0% 21.2% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##