* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 64 66 68 69 67 65 59 56 50 44 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 64 66 68 69 67 65 59 56 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 64 63 60 57 53 47 41 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 8 9 13 7 14 12 14 7 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 1 -2 1 5 2 2 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 31 39 37 29 30 41 51 47 50 48 65 94 118 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 151 143 136 131 124 118 113 107 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 74 72 75 74 74 70 67 63 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -9 -9 -21 -39 -48 -53 -48 -32 -33 -44 -56 200 MB DIV 28 39 46 33 36 7 11 2 19 5 -7 4 -24 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -5 -3 -6 -2 -4 -3 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 412 475 491 484 490 495 547 567 575 626 720 806 861 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.4 21.7 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.7 110.5 111.3 112.0 113.1 114.2 115.1 116.0 117.1 118.3 119.5 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 16 15 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. 4. 1. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 30.3% 22.6% 16.4% 13.4% 16.9% 13.2% Logistic: 2.5% 10.2% 5.9% 3.3% 1.5% 2.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 5.4% 16.5% 10.3% 6.7% 5.0% 6.6% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##