* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 70 73 77 77 75 71 67 62 55 48 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 70 73 77 77 75 71 67 62 55 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 72 75 79 80 77 72 66 60 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 10 6 5 5 7 9 11 14 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 71 81 110 117 108 61 88 41 80 80 81 82 94 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.2 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 142 137 125 117 113 109 107 104 99 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 59 60 57 56 54 56 54 53 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 23 33 40 25 26 10 15 10 33 41 47 200 MB DIV 51 38 43 32 29 15 19 2 -3 0 2 -5 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -7 -10 -10 -4 -2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1447 1485 1519 1561 1610 1676 1747 1774 1772 1782 1826 1895 1993 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 15.0 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.9 124.5 126.2 127.4 128.0 128.6 129.5 130.7 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 5 4 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 23 15 15 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 22. 20. 16. 12. 7. 0. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.0 118.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 35.9% 25.7% 17.8% 17.3% 35.3% 16.0% Logistic: 5.3% 15.9% 6.8% 5.2% 2.7% 4.7% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.6% 12.2% 5.7% 2.8% 2.3% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 24.1% 14.9% 9.6% 7.6% 14.1% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##