* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 46 43 39 31 28 25 26 27 26 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 42 39 38 31 27 25 26 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 41 42 39 36 34 33 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 11 17 25 33 31 21 11 11 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 261 255 241 239 236 238 242 247 255 241 255 247 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.0 24.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 128 128 128 128 126 124 122 120 114 103 94 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 33 33 34 36 37 40 41 43 42 38 35 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 11 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 -3 0 3 6 15 11 -5 -32 -58 -53 -44 200 MB DIV -34 -20 -4 2 5 8 -7 -5 -35 -13 12 22 4 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 3 7 7 9 9 5 9 4 16 LAND (KM) 247 166 85 19 -18 -4 25 67 249 488 759 1015 1255 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.8 24.2 25.9 28.0 30.0 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.4 154.1 154.7 155.2 156.4 157.7 159.2 160.7 162.2 163.6 164.9 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 10 12 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -22. -25. -24. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.7 152.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 464.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.25 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.8% 12.7% 7.7% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 4.5% 2.6% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##