* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 64 64 64 60 57 52 47 42 35 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 64 64 64 60 57 52 47 42 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 62 60 57 53 47 41 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 9 13 13 13 12 14 14 13 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 -6 4 3 4 1 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 35 34 28 34 33 53 49 48 49 65 89 106 105 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 150 147 138 132 126 122 117 111 104 97 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 71 70 70 69 71 66 64 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -9 -9 -18 -34 -38 -53 -41 -41 -39 -48 -45 -64 200 MB DIV 41 40 21 28 13 5 12 7 -5 2 -8 -5 -22 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -7 -4 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 456 473 458 454 461 507 552 564 580 635 744 846 917 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.3 111.1 111.7 112.4 113.7 114.8 115.7 116.3 117.3 118.7 120.2 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 15 14 12 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 109.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 27.0% 20.1% 14.7% 11.4% 14.7% 11.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.9% 12.8% 8.1% 5.5% 4.0% 5.2% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##