* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 65 68 68 66 61 58 52 46 39 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 65 68 68 66 61 58 52 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 63 64 65 64 60 56 51 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 8 7 5 6 9 7 14 13 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 3 -1 0 -1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 86 108 120 107 83 95 82 95 95 75 79 63 65 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 140 130 120 114 109 106 102 99 94 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 56 57 54 51 51 47 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 17 16 16 14 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 31 33 30 17 19 10 25 27 48 48 42 200 MB DIV 29 39 29 12 8 10 8 1 5 -2 3 -9 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -8 -15 -7 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1485 1523 1557 1595 1637 1689 1732 1741 1766 1795 1843 1898 1979 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.7 123.6 125.2 126.6 127.6 128.4 129.2 130.1 131.1 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 15 13 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 11. 6. 3. -3. -9. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.4 119.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 326.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.21 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 26.7% 20.4% 14.0% 13.6% 17.3% 12.3% Logistic: 1.2% 4.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 11.2% 7.6% 5.1% 4.7% 6.0% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##