* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 59 58 59 58 56 54 49 45 39 32 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 59 58 59 58 56 54 49 45 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 55 55 53 50 46 41 36 32 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 13 13 14 10 15 14 15 11 17 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -2 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 34 16 24 29 45 44 49 55 59 91 98 104 101 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 151 147 143 135 129 126 126 122 115 109 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 71 73 69 72 69 68 64 61 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 16 16 17 17 18 16 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -14 -31 -35 -47 -50 -65 -60 -64 -72 -79 -87 200 MB DIV 34 9 15 24 1 14 15 3 -6 -14 -17 -23 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -7 -7 -5 -6 -6 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 477 438 415 418 434 480 503 546 607 670 735 830 919 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.4 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.1 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 11 8 5 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -6. -10. -16. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.16 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 24.8% 18.3% 12.4% 10.0% 13.4% 9.3% Logistic: 0.9% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 9.6% 6.6% 4.4% 3.4% 4.6% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##