* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 24 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 34 33 31 30 28 26 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 32 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 30 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 18 21 29 30 23 18 20 20 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 259 238 246 241 237 236 243 241 240 239 246 248 249 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.5 23.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 129 130 128 125 124 123 119 108 98 93 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 33 33 36 37 39 40 42 42 38 37 38 38 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 8 9 12 15 -4 -39 -58 -62 -53 -30 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -4 11 20 0 -14 -23 1 26 23 19 19 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 4 6 7 11 12 9 11 9 12 11 LAND (KM) 88 20 2 43 80 9 45 264 496 730 961 1230 1513 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.0 25.5 27.2 29.1 31.4 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.2 155.9 156.5 157.1 158.3 159.7 161.3 162.9 164.3 165.4 166.5 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 4 0 13 18 9 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 154.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 378.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.37 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##