* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 56 56 54 50 46 42 37 30 23 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 56 56 54 50 46 42 37 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 53 50 47 42 36 32 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 15 12 15 16 13 15 14 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 6 0 5 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 48 43 46 50 46 37 65 67 82 102 126 114 116 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.3 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 144 139 133 128 124 121 115 104 97 91 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 72 69 66 68 64 62 58 54 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -26 -33 -35 -46 -49 -50 -47 -57 -49 -63 -54 200 MB DIV 15 15 14 2 1 2 7 -14 -14 -38 -11 -25 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -7 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 445 418 406 412 431 493 528 582 670 758 823 865 935 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.0 114.1 115.1 116.1 117.3 118.6 120.0 121.2 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 9 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -25. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.11 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 21.4% 15.8% 10.6% 7.9% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.9% 5.5% 3.6% 2.7% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##