* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 69 69 68 64 61 55 48 43 36 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 69 69 68 64 61 55 48 43 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 67 68 68 65 61 57 51 45 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 8 7 6 9 9 16 10 8 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 91 72 85 100 80 84 93 67 69 56 77 113 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 136 130 120 114 109 106 105 100 95 95 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 57 56 53 50 48 46 46 47 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 15 14 11 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 27 17 12 17 12 22 34 45 38 39 22 200 MB DIV -4 -10 -12 11 11 13 1 13 1 11 -7 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -5 -9 -11 -8 -2 -7 -2 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1583 1607 1637 1665 1697 1732 1749 1774 1810 1865 1922 1991 2078 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.8 123.7 124.5 125.3 126.6 127.7 128.5 129.3 130.2 131.3 132.4 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 18 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 1. -5. -12. -17. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.8 121.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.37 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 392.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 24.9% 19.7% 14.1% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.7% 7.6% 5.2% 0.2% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##