* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 26 24 22 20 19 18 18 19 21 V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 28 26 25 22 22 20 20 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 30 31 29 28 26 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 24 28 33 25 20 19 23 22 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 -2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 243 245 247 244 236 247 242 249 235 244 240 256 246 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 130 130 129 126 125 122 121 114 104 96 92 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -57.0 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 32 35 36 39 41 41 43 42 40 37 39 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 7 10 12 14 10 -19 -43 -53 -53 -59 -44 200 MB DIV -11 -5 10 19 11 -7 -13 -27 22 16 19 22 16 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 5 12 12 14 14 11 15 12 22 LAND (KM) 0 4 63 94 44 3 173 398 631 857 1065 1292 1550 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.8 26.4 28.1 29.8 31.9 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 155.3 156.0 156.7 157.4 158.0 159.3 160.8 162.3 163.8 165.1 166.1 166.8 167.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 15 20 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 155.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 329.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##