* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 74 75 73 70 65 58 50 43 34 27 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 74 75 73 70 65 58 50 43 34 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 75 75 74 69 62 55 47 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 9 10 12 16 9 6 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 -1 3 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 74 61 68 69 83 77 112 91 88 87 114 139 136 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 132 127 119 112 106 103 98 93 90 93 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 58 56 55 52 46 46 44 42 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 16 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 6 1 1 -1 15 22 38 39 53 54 54 200 MB DIV -17 -8 10 15 21 0 6 -2 -7 -11 -1 -6 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -10 -11 -11 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1621 1653 1691 1715 1743 1759 1765 1785 1792 1833 1912 2019 1958 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.6 124.5 125.3 126.0 127.2 128.2 129.0 129.5 130.5 131.9 133.8 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 16 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 0. -7. -15. -22. -31. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 122.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.30 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 428.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.30 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 26.0% 20.3% 16.5% 13.3% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 5.6% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 12.4% 8.3% 6.3% 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##