* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 55 58 57 55 51 49 42 33 25 18 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 55 58 57 55 51 49 42 33 25 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 53 51 47 42 37 32 27 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 10 9 14 15 9 9 13 17 19 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 0 0 2 5 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 52 40 31 30 55 50 66 106 116 107 109 113 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.5 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 137 133 128 124 121 115 107 97 90 86 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 71 65 64 63 65 60 58 56 53 49 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 15 18 19 19 18 19 17 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -30 -35 -34 -39 -35 -41 -41 -55 -48 -56 -53 -41 200 MB DIV 15 14 7 13 6 13 -10 -11 -14 -17 -20 -8 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 388 393 409 436 469 514 590 685 781 869 925 1010 1119 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.8 21.1 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.1 112.7 113.3 113.9 115.0 116.1 117.4 118.8 120.3 121.9 123.4 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 3. 2. 0. -4. -6. -13. -22. -30. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 111.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.43 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.20 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 22.1% 16.3% 10.9% 8.9% 11.0% 7.6% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.3% 5.8% 3.8% 3.1% 3.7% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##