* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 32 30 29 27 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 32 30 29 27 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 29 29 30 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 23 26 27 22 20 20 22 16 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 241 235 235 238 227 234 224 227 225 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.0 24.4 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 129 128 126 124 122 113 107 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.8 -56.3 -56.8 -57.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 39 41 41 39 41 40 37 35 35 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 10 14 12 11 -13 -33 -41 -43 -36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 1 -5 -8 10 -4 -21 30 16 31 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 7 9 12 12 15 13 8 8 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 133 78 80 0 203 420 659 903 1145 1371 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.3 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.4 27.9 29.3 30.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.0 157.7 158.3 159.0 159.7 161.3 162.7 164.2 166.0 167.9 169.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 23 22 10 2 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 157.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 323.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 75.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##