* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 84 81 77 68 60 52 46 37 29 23 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 84 81 77 68 60 52 46 37 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 80 80 78 72 65 58 51 43 37 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 7 9 9 11 8 6 5 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 86 77 121 68 82 94 90 83 47 109 168 168 165 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.1 22.3 22.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 128 123 120 113 107 103 99 93 85 88 89 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 54 54 51 45 45 45 43 41 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 17 15 16 14 13 12 12 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 2 0 -7 19 23 44 42 49 60 57 47 200 MB DIV 8 21 35 24 3 -10 5 4 -5 4 -6 -15 -20 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -13 -16 -13 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 8 9 8 LAND (KM) 1660 1698 1741 1759 1768 1764 1768 1775 1781 1843 1928 1982 1912 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.5 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.1 125.9 126.5 127.1 128.0 128.7 129.3 129.9 131.2 133.2 135.0 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 6 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 6. 2. -7. -15. -23. -29. -38. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.13 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.88 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 564.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.10 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 28.4% 21.3% 16.3% 15.8% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 9.7% 6.7% 5.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 13.0% 9.4% 7.4% 6.4% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##