* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME AL502016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 20 23 26 29 35 39 45 54 59 V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 25 25 26 30 33 39 43 49 58 63 V (KT) LGEM 15 20 23 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 28 29 33 33 26 30 23 23 13 12 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 3 -1 3 -1 5 5 11 15 SHEAR DIR 68 73 69 73 73 67 79 75 87 115 118 149 181 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 27.7 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 112 115 117 121 136 137 142 139 142 143 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 111 116 121 128 147 148 154 149 155 157 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 10 4 7 4 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 84 86 84 81 81 80 82 82 79 80 77 73 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 38 31 38 26 18 9 34 41 55 58 37 200 MB DIV 90 98 77 45 50 28 36 27 37 23 -18 -38 -1 700-850 TADV 6 7 1 -2 -3 -4 3 8 8 7 5 11 10 LAND (KM) -392 -424 -450 -433 -438 -338 7 297 627 1048 1477 1920 1521 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.3 LONG(DEG W) 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.6 9.3 13.4 17.5 21.9 25.9 29.9 34.0 37.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 11 15 17 20 20 21 21 19 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 7 8 21 13 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 20. 24. 30. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 9.1 1.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL502016 NONAME 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 15.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -17.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL502016 NONAME 07/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 20 23 25 25 26 30 33 39 43 49 58 63 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT