* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 65 65 63 58 54 47 36 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 65 65 63 58 54 47 36 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 62 60 54 47 41 34 28 22 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 15 14 11 8 13 17 20 21 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 3 1 4 2 3 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 45 30 33 35 51 68 83 106 116 103 110 110 104 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.1 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 133 131 126 120 113 102 95 92 90 89 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 65 66 62 60 57 54 51 50 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -49 -51 -56 -50 -60 -56 -57 -48 -59 -52 -37 -10 200 MB DIV -2 11 15 16 17 -11 -13 -14 -14 -23 -15 -24 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 0 2 2 6 LAND (KM) 421 442 472 505 517 577 663 764 821 887 982 1090 1200 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.4 22.1 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.9 117.3 118.8 120.2 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 5 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -6. -13. -24. -34. -42. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 112.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.2% 18.0% 12.6% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.5% 6.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##