* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 96 93 88 78 68 57 48 38 29 23 17 V (KT) LAND 90 95 96 93 88 78 68 57 48 38 29 23 17 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 94 90 85 75 65 56 48 41 34 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 5 4 7 12 8 4 7 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 124 131 105 102 100 95 66 68 55 155 176 175 175 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.2 22.3 22.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 121 119 115 109 105 98 91 84 85 91 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 54 54 53 48 45 43 43 41 42 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 1 0 8 32 52 63 71 72 76 71 49 200 MB DIV 17 30 19 -2 -7 2 4 3 -3 -9 -8 -13 2 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -13 -10 -8 -2 -4 -1 -2 5 4 8 13 LAND (KM) 1695 1722 1742 1740 1741 1742 1749 1757 1781 1862 1915 1905 1645 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.6 22.6 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.8 126.5 127.0 127.5 128.2 128.9 129.7 130.7 132.3 134.4 136.8 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. -41. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 3. -1. -12. -22. -33. -42. -52. -61. -67. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.4 125.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 701.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.8% 5.6% 6.3% 4.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 1.9% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##