* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 66 65 64 58 50 41 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 66 65 64 58 50 41 31 23 16 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 60 59 54 49 43 37 30 24 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 9 7 7 7 12 15 19 19 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 24 35 42 51 52 84 95 102 99 111 108 104 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.7 24.7 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 133 131 126 119 109 100 94 90 88 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 65 63 62 58 57 53 50 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 19 19 20 18 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -54 -53 -49 -61 -57 -65 -59 -63 -62 -56 -42 -16 200 MB DIV 8 17 17 10 -2 0 -18 -17 -30 -13 -4 -16 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 441 469 502 539 552 606 688 784 839 902 991 1087 1177 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.4 113.9 114.5 115.0 116.2 117.7 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. -2. -10. -19. -29. -37. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 112.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 279.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 24.7% 18.2% 12.2% 11.5% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.3% 6.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##