* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 109 104 97 80 65 50 39 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 111 109 104 97 80 65 50 39 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 108 103 95 87 73 60 50 41 34 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 4 4 8 11 3 3 8 11 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 0 -2 -1 0 -5 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 135 55 112 134 127 84 91 78 149 189 196 187 179 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.6 24.0 23.1 22.3 22.3 22.8 23.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 117 115 113 107 101 93 85 86 91 100 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 53 51 46 44 42 40 37 35 33 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 15 14 14 12 11 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 0 9 25 35 56 56 77 85 74 67 56 200 MB DIV 16 6 -6 -4 2 1 2 -2 2 -13 -5 -6 0 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -9 -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 5 11 8 14 LAND (KM) 1705 1707 1705 1707 1710 1722 1710 1747 1853 1925 1902 1630 1360 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.3 126.8 127.2 127.6 128.4 129.0 130.2 132.0 134.3 136.8 139.6 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -35. -44. -51. -55. -58. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 10. 6. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 4. -1. -8. -25. -40. -55. -66. -76. -85. -90. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 125.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 867.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.2% 1.0% 4.0% 3.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 0.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##