* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 54 55 52 52 48 39 31 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 54 55 52 52 48 39 31 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 49 46 43 39 33 26 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 6 4 2 13 17 19 21 22 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 27 20 27 35 13 85 93 106 98 109 109 109 95 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.4 23.5 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 133 130 124 116 106 96 90 88 86 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 62 61 60 57 54 51 48 48 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 20 19 20 20 16 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -52 -44 -51 -52 -45 -59 -40 -43 -44 -36 -22 0 200 MB DIV 14 12 13 1 -9 -1 -14 -5 -19 -3 -10 -11 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 447 473 502 543 557 618 700 789 843 905 995 1069 1156 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.5 115.1 116.5 118.0 119.5 121.0 122.2 123.3 124.3 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 4 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 4. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. -3. -3. -7. -16. -24. -32. -40. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 19.7% 14.9% 9.6% 8.4% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.9% 5.1% 3.3% 2.8% 3.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##