* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 112 102 91 73 57 42 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 117 112 102 91 73 57 42 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 113 104 94 85 69 56 46 38 32 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 7 5 6 3 6 11 12 11 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 4 2 -1 0 -2 -2 5 3 8 SHEAR DIR 312 96 143 162 137 92 102 146 182 192 173 163 191 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.3 23.6 22.8 22.4 22.8 23.5 24.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 114 112 109 104 98 90 87 91 98 107 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 51 49 46 44 41 38 35 32 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 1 18 28 39 62 74 84 83 78 62 48 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -9 -6 -13 0 2 -7 5 -5 -7 10 -9 700-850 TADV -13 -11 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 9 11 13 13 12 LAND (KM) 1717 1720 1726 1730 1736 1744 1788 1876 1941 1947 1679 1409 1157 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.0 127.5 127.9 128.3 129.0 130.2 131.8 133.8 136.3 139.0 141.8 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 6 8 10 12 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -22. -35. -46. -55. -63. -67. -70. -70. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -3. -13. -24. -42. -58. -73. -85. -94.-100.-105.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 126.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 982.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##