* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 51 50 50 45 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 51 50 50 45 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 43 39 33 26 20 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 4 7 14 14 19 18 21 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 0 0 1 2 -1 2 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 31 29 42 42 58 105 98 97 100 111 117 127 113 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.8 23.1 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 127 126 120 110 100 92 85 82 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 60 59 55 54 47 45 41 42 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -46 -51 -46 -48 -50 -36 -30 -30 -27 -10 7 30 200 MB DIV 7 4 11 13 2 -9 -9 -17 -17 -7 -9 1 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 479 516 532 559 596 702 786 850 944 1057 1141 1280 1381 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.6 116.3 118.1 119.7 121.5 123.2 124.7 125.7 127.3 129.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -10. -19. -29. -38. -47. -55. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 113.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 297.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.2% 13.4% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.2% 4.6% 3.0% 2.5% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##