* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 97 86 78 63 51 40 29 20 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 105 97 86 78 63 51 40 29 20 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 103 94 84 76 63 51 42 34 28 23 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 8 6 6 4 11 13 14 14 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 3 3 1 -2 0 -1 5 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 117 116 105 105 96 75 104 161 178 168 152 161 203 SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.1 22.8 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 112 109 108 104 100 93 91 91 100 107 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 48 46 44 42 40 37 34 30 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 14 12 11 8 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 2 16 24 25 46 59 72 86 73 72 48 38 200 MB DIV -11 -19 -15 -9 -8 -1 -12 10 -14 -3 -15 17 -12 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 6 5 10 5 7 5 LAND (KM) 1704 1706 1711 1717 1723 1751 1809 1916 1996 1873 1598 1356 1139 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.5 127.9 128.2 128.5 129.4 130.7 132.4 134.6 137.0 139.7 142.1 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 6 8 10 11 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -21. -32. -42. -51. -57. -62. -64. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -24. -32. -47. -59. -70. -81. -90. -95.-101.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.2 127.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 964.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##