* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 39 40 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 39 40 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 14 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 231 236 245 241 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 130 129 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 34 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 0 -12 -20 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 18 4 -1 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 14 15 16 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 82 172 265 370 476 689 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.6 161.4 162.2 163.0 163.8 165.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 9 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 160.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 303.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##