* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 49 49 47 42 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 49 49 47 42 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 45 43 39 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 4 3 7 11 13 13 13 14 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 62 43 47 57 103 111 111 121 115 135 124 129 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.1 24.0 23.2 22.5 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 129 126 123 114 102 93 85 81 78 77 77 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 56 53 51 45 43 42 44 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 19 19 19 16 14 12 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -51 -43 -50 -50 -47 -29 -32 -32 -9 4 20 35 200 MB DIV -3 -2 17 6 4 -7 -9 -18 -7 -19 -11 -7 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 509 527 546 584 634 741 790 875 965 1062 1158 1297 1396 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.3 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.8 115.4 116.3 117.2 118.9 120.7 122.4 123.8 125.0 126.1 127.6 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -8. -18. -26. -34. -43. -47. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.03 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 296.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.6% 14.8% 9.0% 8.6% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.3% 5.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##