* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 89 79 70 60 48 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 89 79 70 60 48 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 89 79 70 64 52 42 34 26 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 5 7 7 10 16 20 24 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 4 2 0 -1 3 4 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 99 95 104 94 124 154 178 177 178 182 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.4 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.7 23.1 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 108 105 105 101 95 90 89 94 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 46 47 44 43 40 36 34 30 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 25 31 40 59 79 87 79 76 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -16 -11 -7 -8 3 4 -4 -13 -11 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 9 12 16 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1710 1712 1715 1719 1723 1759 1865 1950 1985 1733 1461 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.0 128.4 128.7 129.0 130.0 131.8 133.8 135.9 138.4 141.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 8 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -18. -28. -37. -44. -50. -53. -54. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -30. -40. -52. -62. -73. -82. -88. -90. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.7 127.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 915.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##