* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 70 61 53 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 80 70 61 53 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 79 70 62 56 45 36 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 9 11 10 12 16 22 25 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 4 1 -1 2 3 3 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 74 111 104 107 124 157 175 172 180 196 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.6 22.8 22.7 22.7 23.5 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 105 103 102 98 90 90 90 98 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 46 43 42 42 37 35 32 31 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 21 32 43 49 65 83 84 79 68 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -15 -16 -2 10 -7 13 -12 0 -10 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 -1 -6 5 9 8 10 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1719 1718 1719 1717 1716 1783 1899 1976 1858 1605 1334 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.2 22.7 22.7 22.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.4 128.7 129.0 129.3 130.6 132.6 134.8 137.2 139.7 142.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 11 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. -31. -37. -41. -43. -44. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -29. -37. -49. -59. -70. -78. -83. -88. -89. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.0 128.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 827.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##