* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 56 55 50 41 30 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 56 55 50 41 30 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 54 51 45 37 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 1 5 10 12 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 39 46 85 105 119 116 133 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 123 120 115 104 96 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 54 53 49 44 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 15 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -45 -52 -54 -40 -44 -39 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -5 -2 -5 -11 -2 -32 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -4 3 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 531 565 610 660 718 777 861 950 1029 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.6 120.3 122.0 123.4 124.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -5. -14. -25. -35. -38. -41. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.9 115.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.26 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 373.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.37 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 26.6% 19.6% 12.9% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.3% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.7% 7.8% 5.1% 0.5% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##