* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 51 44 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 59 51 44 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 59 51 46 41 34 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 9 9 8 12 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 -1 0 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 95 109 115 119 134 164 187 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.4 22.9 22.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 106 103 101 96 91 91 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 44 41 42 41 38 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 34 44 53 59 73 77 70 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -5 5 21 7 12 -8 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 0 8 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1721 1724 1728 1740 1753 1821 1952 2024 1808 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.6 128.9 129.4 129.8 131.2 133.3 135.5 137.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -23. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -13. -14. -12. -9. -7. -3. -2. -1. 2. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -26. -30. -39. -49. -57. -65. -66. -67. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 654.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##