* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 34 36 36 33 29 26 21 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 34 36 36 33 29 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 16 17 18 19 20 20 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 18 20 19 15 15 14 19 24 26 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 268 279 276 280 264 248 262 247 236 223 229 233 241 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.1 23.8 22.7 22.3 21.9 21.4 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 127 125 122 114 101 90 85 81 76 62 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -56.8 -56.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 35 34 33 32 32 34 36 39 42 43 47 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -27 -32 -43 -57 -68 -86 -89 -94 -99 -111 -105 -115 200 MB DIV -16 -8 1 -5 -2 25 14 28 8 27 4 5 4 700-850 TADV 17 17 16 13 14 15 22 23 25 17 20 14 14 LAND (KM) 350 446 520 580 633 740 876 1044 1245 1441 1637 1832 1711 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.8 28.6 30.6 32.8 34.8 36.7 38.6 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 163.0 163.8 164.3 164.6 164.8 164.9 164.7 164.3 163.7 163.1 162.6 161.6 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 8 10 11 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -9. -16. -23. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 16. 16. 13. 9. 6. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.1 163.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##