* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 71 71 60 48 36 24 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 71 71 60 48 36 24 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 70 72 71 67 56 45 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 6 7 8 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 308 200 137 146 122 115 134 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 23.7 23.0 22.5 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 118 113 107 99 91 85 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 55 51 51 46 43 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 17 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -43 -47 -52 -42 -38 -37 -24 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -1 -4 -5 -2 -24 -15 -9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -4 -1 4 -1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 572 619 676 740 776 835 929 1016 1090 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.1 118.0 119.0 119.9 121.5 123.1 124.3 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -17. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. -5. -17. -29. -41. -45. -48. -51. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.1 116.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.12 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 467.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 26.5% 20.5% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 3.3% 5.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 10.0% 8.6% 6.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##