* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 49 43 38 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 56 49 43 38 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 56 49 44 40 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 5 3 9 13 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 95 116 148 155 173 195 184 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.4 22.8 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 104 103 102 96 90 92 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 42 42 40 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 50 53 47 54 61 47 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 18 25 -3 3 15 -16 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 7 3 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1737 1737 1737 1753 1771 1852 1932 2002 1743 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.8 21.6 21.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.8 129.0 129.5 130.0 131.6 133.4 135.7 138.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -36. -45. -54. -60. -61. -62. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 593.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##