* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 72 67 55 42 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 72 67 55 42 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 73 73 69 64 51 40 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 8 8 9 15 14 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 153 117 130 127 114 127 129 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.5 22.1 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 113 107 102 95 85 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 48 43 39 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 16 15 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -44 -49 -40 -40 -34 -36 -22 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -8 -18 -3 -6 -20 -3 -7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -2 3 1 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 634 687 747 776 805 896 983 1076 1151 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.4 24.2 24.4 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.8 122.5 124.0 125.1 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. -3. -15. -28. -41. -54. -59. -63. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.3 117.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 540.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.14 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 23.5% 18.2% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.2% 2.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 8.2% 6.9% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##