* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 43 38 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 43 38 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 40 37 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 4 4 4 10 14 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 4 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 108 120 102 145 190 194 197 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.1 22.9 23.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 105 102 99 93 92 93 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 42 40 41 39 38 36 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 54 57 64 63 64 61 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 14 -5 6 3 -7 -15 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -7 -2 6 5 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1737 1750 1766 1787 1812 1939 2038 1838 1631 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.7 21.9 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.0 129.5 130.2 130.8 132.6 135.1 137.3 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 8 8 10 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -20. -30. -40. -49. -54. -54. -54. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.08 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 509.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.18 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.3% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##