* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS AL712016 07/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 47 53 59 66 75 81 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 30 38 45 50 56 62 69 78 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 24 24 25 28 31 35 38 40 43 48 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 13 6 5 6 8 10 12 15 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 6 9 9 9 8 4 3 -4 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 57 64 68 67 126 198 207 160 142 115 114 107 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 138 139 140 142 140 140 138 136 135 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 149 149 150 150 147 146 140 135 131 132 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 75 73 70 70 69 72 71 73 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 16 30 37 50 67 79 83 91 82 74 55 31 200 MB DIV 43 55 59 60 45 21 26 -17 2 16 8 32 48 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) -70 104 256 375 558 939 1294 1637 1930 1706 1561 1513 1521 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 10.6 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 12.9 15.3 17.5 19.5 21.5 25.2 28.5 31.8 34.6 36.8 38.2 39.1 40.0 STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 21 20 19 17 16 15 12 9 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 1 3 8 5 12 14 20 17 20 23 18 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 27. 33. 39. 46. 55. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.7 12.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL712016 GENESIS 07/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL712016 GENESIS 07/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 27 30 38 45 50 56 62 69 78 84 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 41 46 52 58 65 74 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 36 41 47 53 60 69 75 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT