* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 28 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 6 10 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 161 180 178 184 199 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 101 98 95 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 40 41 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 72 72 67 83 68 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 0 -13 0 -7 -15 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 0 5 6 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1728 1755 1785 1835 1889 2004 1930 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.6 130.3 131.2 132.0 134.1 136.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -27. -35. -38. -39. -39. -40. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 128.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 305.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.66 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 11.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##