* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 30 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 16 17 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 118 119 127 135 134 154 145 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 92 88 84 81 77 77 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 41 38 39 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -32 -31 -21 -23 -14 -7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -14 -10 -2 -5 -11 0 -12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 1 0 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 901 935 975 1006 1039 1126 1229 1332 1422 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.1 123.8 124.3 124.8 125.8 126.8 127.8 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -24. -35. -44. -52. -58. -62. -65. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.2 122.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.03 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 417.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##